Shel’s 2006 predictions
Shel Israel posted his predictions for 2006. Most I agree with. A couple better not come true. For example:
9. Somewhere a blogger will break a news story that makes the world stop cold. He or she will be considered for a Pulitzer. But the committee will reject the idea, because the traditional newspaper managers who determine award recipients will remain adamant that bloggers are never journalists.
That would be my luck.
There is one prediction that intrigues me…
6. Each member of the so-called A-List will continue to increase the people who follow them. But they will each become less important, as the relentless growth of the blogosphere outgrows their readerships, giving them influence over smaller percentages of the total.
That’s deep. I believe that the so-called A-List will be shuffled but it will be because no one can stay at the top forever. With the amount of new bloggers coming on the scene it only makes sense that a shift occurs. One thing I see clearly – a generation gap and the difference in thinking will cause a shift.
Anyway, I hope the majority of these things happen, particularly #7, which in my opinion is long overdue. And #2 because those blogs are the cool ones – the ones where they can say whatever they want without worry about being watched, their every word ripped apart.
Read Shel’s predictions. Don’t take them too seriously but when they start to come true, remember Shel said it first.
That is one thing I love about blogs – the ability to look at the past. Let’s look at Robert Scoble’s 2005 predictions:
3) Several more people will get fired FOR blogging. Another one was reported today. Or worse yet, will get sued for what they write or do on their blogs. Blogging is dangerous business.
5) Microsoft will be more interesting at the end of 2005 than at the beginning. And, in a year that just saw the launch of Halo 2, that’s saying something.
8) HDTV. It will be big. ger. Or something.
9) RSS will go mainstream. Why? Cause it’ll be part of the browsing experience.
11) There will be a major disaster in 2005 and mainstream media will use citizen journalists in a new way to cover the disaster.
19) The PDC will sell out in 2005, even after bloggers report on everything that’ll be shown there before the conference. Why? Well, see, hanging out in Universal Studios with Don Box and Chris Sells is cool enough. Who needs Longhorn, new gadgets, or a new Visual Studio when you have THAT?
Not bad, huh? And Robert? No more major disaster predictions, ok?